Mr. Rickard deeply questions the wisdom of the proposals as they would lead to dramatically lower yields, possibly putting thousands of farmers out of business and result in higher food prices that could have a huge impact on developing countries. He said to compensate for yield losses farm-gate prices for wheat, potatoes and vegetables would need to rise by at least 100% if Europe agrees the more draconian agrochemical restrictions that many believe it will and which could reduce agricultural production by at least 53%.
He viewed it as impossible to gauge the impact of that on retail prices, although said that without any mark-up along the food chain it would add at least 9p to a loaf of bread, 3p to a litre (1.7p a pint) of milk and 40p per kg (18p a lb) to pork. For vegetables it could mean a ￡1 a kg (45p a lb) rise.
The increases would be on top of the 7.5% rise in food prices in the last year and the far bigger jump seen by consumers in the costs of basics such as bread, milk, dairy products and meat.
Mr Rickard said the poorest in the society would pay the heaviest burden as they spent a bigger proportion of their income on food. He also worried about them dropping vegetables and fruit out of their diets and the health implications that would have if the price of these commodity products became too expensive.
He also feared for farmers, saying the likely price increases would fail to compensate them for the loss of margin that would result from lower yields. The impact on livestock producers would be devastating as far higher feed costs would force many out of business and leave meat and dairy products priced out of the reach of many consumers.
Mr Rickard added: “To date politicians can fairly claim that in large measure food inflation is something that has been caused by events beyond their control.
“Such claims will not be tenable if crop protection substances are markedly restricted by legislation. As the world enters a period of uncertainty regarding its ability to feed itself, politicians in the world’s richest nations have a moral duty not only to keep the cost of food to their own populations as low as possible, but also to the world’s poor and disadvantaged who will pay a much heavier price if the developed world’s agricultural productivity is reduced.”
Crop Protection Association chief executive Dominic Dyer warned Europe’s agricultural industry would have a far higher carbon footprint if agrochemicals are banned as it would mean far more field work.
He renewed calls on Europe to produce a full assessment on the legislation so that its impact on crop yields, food supply and prices could be fully understood.
Backgroud about the interviewee: Sean Rickard – one of the UK’s most respected agricultural economists and senior business lecturer at the Cranfield University School of Management in Bedfordshire – delivers the warning in a special assessment he has put together on the possible impact of the changes that will next month be debated and decided on in the European Parliament.
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