K+S Q3/2024 results: Revenues and EBITDA slightly below prior-year figures in the third quarter

Date:11-15-2024

In the third quarter of the current year, revenues from K+S were at €866 million, slightly below last year's figure (€881 million). Operating earnings EBITDA reached €66 million compared to €72 million in the third quarter of 2023. Lower prices for products containing potash in both customer segments as well as slightly lower sales volumes were the main reasons for this development. Adjusted free cash flow in the first nine months of the current financial year amounted to €+111 million (9M/2023: €+328 million). The key figures for the third quarter were, therefore, slightly above expectations.

• Q3 revenues: €866 million (Q3/2023: €881 million; Vara consensus estimate as of October 16, 2024: €822 million); 9M: €2,728 million (9M/2023: €2,899 million)

  
  

• Q3 EBITDA: €66 million (Q3/2023: €72 million; Vara consensus estimate as of October 16, 2024: €59 million); 9M: €394 million (9M/2023: €550 million)

  
  

• Agricultural customer segment once again with high proportion of fertilizer specialties

  
  

• Adjusted free cash flow reaches €+111 million in the first nine months (9M/2023: €+328 million; Vara consensus estimate as of October 16, 2024: €+97 million)

  
  

• 2024 outlook:

  
  

• Agricultural customer segment: relatively stable price development for the remainder of the year; annual sales volumes (excluding trade goods) in a range of 7.4 to 7.6 million tonnes assumed (previous outlook: 7.4 to 7.7 million tonnes); the adjustment in sales volumes is due to production bottlenecks, particularly caused by an above-average sickness rate

  
  

• EBITDA: expected at about €540 million (previous outlook: €530 to €620 million; 2023: €712 million; Vara consensus estimate as of October 16, 2024: €550 million)

  
  

• Adjusted free cash flow continues to be expected to at least break even (2023: €+311 million; Vara consensus estimate as of October 16, 2024: €+15 million)

″Due to the scheduled maintenance measures, the third quarter is, as usual, our weakest quarter of the year. The lower potash prices compared to the previous year also weighed on our earnings″ says Dr. Burkhard Lohr, Chairman of the Board of Executive Directors of K+S Aktiengesellschaft. ″For the full year 2024, we now expect EBITDA of about €540 million, which is closer to the lower end of our previous range. The adjusted free cash flow should at least break even, as previously expected.″

Development in the customer segments

In the Agriculture customer segment, revenues decreased to €606 million in the third quarter (Q3/2023: €621 million). Higher revenues of fertilizer specialties could not fully compensate for the decline in potassium chloride. While revenues in Europe decreased to €271 million (Q3/2023: €300 million), revenues from overseas rose to €335 million (Q3/2023: €321 million). Sales volumes excluding trade goods in the third quarter were slightly below the previous year's figure at 1.80 million tonnes (Q3/2023: 1.84 million tonnes).

In the Industry+ customer segment, revenues in the third quarter amounted to €260 million. The recovery in demand for chemical, industrial and pharmaceutical products was noticeable here. A slight increase in sales volumes and a continued good price level for salt products ensured revenues at the prior-year level despite lower average prices for potash products. Sales volumes amounted to 1.57 million tonnes, therefore, slightly above the figure for the same quarter last year (Q3/2023: 1.55 million tonnes).

2024 outlook: EBITDA forecast specified

For 2024 as a whole, K+S now expects operating earnings EBITDA to be about €540 million, which is closer to the lower end of the previous range (previous forecast: between €530 million and €620 million; 2023: €712 million).

As previously forecast, adjusted free cash flow should at least break even (2023: €+311 million), despite the elevated capital expenditure due to the Ramp-up Bethune project and preparatory expenditure for the Werra 2060 transformation project.

Furthermore, an oversupply on the potash market is still not expected for the year as a whole.

In the Agriculture customer segment, a relatively stable price development compared to current levels is assumed for the rest of the year. Sales volumes in the Agriculture customer segment (excluding trade goods) are expected to be in a range with an unchanged lower end of 7.4 million tonnes and a reduced upper end of 7.6 million tonnes (previous forecast: 7.4 million to 7.7 million tonnes; 2023: 7.2 million tonnes); this is due to production bottlenecks, particularly caused by an above-average sickness rate.

Other assumptions on which the estimate for the full year 2024 is based are described on page 9 of the Q3/2024 Quarterly Report.

Notes

Further information and data on the development in the third quarter of 2024 can be found in the Q3/2024 Quarterly Report as well as in the Q3/2024 Facts & Figures, and in the interview on business development with Dr. Burkhard Lohr, Chairman of the Board of Executive Directors of K+S.