Nutrien Reports Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2022 Results

Date:02-16-2023

Nutrien Ltd. (TSX and NYSE: NTR) announced its fourth quarter 2022 results, with net earnings of $1.1 billion ($2.15 diluted net earnings per share). Fourth quarter 2022 adjusted net earnings per share¹ was $2.02 and adjusted EBITDA¹ was $2.1 billion.

″Geopolitical events caused an unprecedented level of supply disruption and market volatility across agriculture, energy and fertilizer markets in 2022. Nutrien delivered record net earnings and cash flow in this environment due to the advantages of our world-class production, distribution and retail network. We returned $5.6 billion to shareholders, invested in our global Retail network and advanced a number of long-term strategic initiatives that position our company for future growth and sustainability,″ commented Ken Seitz, Nutrien’s President and CEO.

″The outlook for our business is strong as we expect global supply issues to persist and demand for crop inputs to increase in 2023. We remain disciplined in our capital allocation approach as we position the company to best serve the needs of our customers, while delivering meaningful returns for our shareholders,″ added Mr. Seitz.

Highlights:

• Nutrien generated net earnings of $7.7 billion ($14.18 diluted net earnings per share) and adjusted EBITDA¹ of $12.2 billion in 2022 supported by higher realized fertilizer prices and record Nutrien Ag Solutions (″Retail″) performance, more than offsetting a reduction in fertilizer sales volumes. Cash provided by operating activitiesincreased to $8.1 billion in 2022, more than doubling the prior year’s total.

• Nutrien repurchased 53 million shares in 2022 and an additional 8 million shares in 2023, completing its normal course issuer bid (″NCIB″) in early February 2023. Nutrien’s Board of Directors approved a 10 percent increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.53 per share and approved the purchase of up to 5 percent of Nutrien’s outstanding common shares over a twelve-month period through a NCIB. The NCIB is subject to acceptance by the Toronto Stock Exchange.

• Nutrien allocated $1.2 billion of growth capital¹ (cash used in investing activities of $2.9 billion) in 2022 to advance strategic initiatives across our Retail, Potash and Nitrogen businesses. This included expanding our Retail network by completing 21 acquisitions in Brazil, the US and Australia for a total investment of approximately $400 million.

• Retail delivered record adjusted EBITDA of $2.3 billion for the full year of 2022, due to supportive market conditions in key regions where we operate. Retail cash operating coverage ratio¹ as at December 31, 2022 improved to 55 percent compared to 58 percent for the same period in 2021 driven by higher margins.

• Potash adjusted EBITDA of $5.8 billion for the full year of 2022 more than doubled compared to the prior year due to higher net realized selling prices and record offshore sales volumes, more than offsetting lower North American sales volumes.

• Nitrogen full year 2022 adjusted EBITDA of $3.9 billion increased 70 percent compared to the prior year due to higher net realized selling prices that more than offset higher natural gas costs and lower sales volumes.

• Nutrien issued full-year 2023 adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net earnings per share guidance¹ of $8.4 to $10.0 billion and $8.45 to $10.65 per share, respectively.

• Nutrien is adjusting the ramp up timing of its existing low-cost potash capacity to optimize capital expenditures in-line with the pace of expected demand recovery in 2023 and beyond. We will maintain a flexible approach and now expect to reach 18 million tonnes of annual operational capability in 2026. Nutrien continues to believe long-term fundamentals support the need for our low-cost, incremental potash capability and there is significant value in having flexibility to increase production when the market needs it.

1. These (and any related guidance, if applicable) are non-IFRS financial measures. See the ″Non-IFRS Financial Measures″ section for further information.

Market Outlook and Guidance

Agriculture and Retail

• Agricultural fundamentals remain strong and are supported by the lowest global grain stocks-to-use ratio in over 25 years. We expect Ukrainian crop production and exports will continue to be constrained by the impact of the war with Russia and believe it will take more than one growing season to alleviate the supply risk from the market. Spot prices for corn, soybeans, and wheat are up 25 to 50 percent compared to the 10-year average, which supports grower returns and provides an incentive to increase crop production in 2023.

• We anticipate US major crop acreage will increase by approximately 4 percent in 2023, assuming a more normal planting window compared to the spring of 2022. We expect corn plantings to increase to 91 to 93 million acres in 2023, which is supportive of crop input demand.

• Brazilian grower economics for soybeans and corn are strong, which we expect will support another year of above-trend acreage growth. Safrinha corn planting and crop input purchases have been delayed due to wet weather, but we expect strong demand as the planting season progresses. Australian growers have benefitted from multiple years of above-average yields and historically high crop prices, positioning them very well financially entering 2023. We expect another year of strong crop production and input demand assuming favorable weather conditions.

Crop Nutrient Markets

• We believe potash inventories have been drawn down in Brazil and the US following a historic decline in the pace of potash shipments in the second half of 2022. We have seen improved potash demand in early 2023, however buyers continue to take a cautious approach to managing inventories that could lead to a more condensed shipment period as we approach the primary application seasons. Our estimate for global potash shipments in 2023 is 63 to 67 million tonnes, which is still constrained compared to the historical trend demand estimated at around 70 million tonnes.

• Belarus potash shipments in 2023 are projected to be down 40 to 60 percent and Russian shipments down 15 to 30 percent compared to 2021. We anticipate the reduction in supply will be most apparent in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022, as both Belarusian and Russian exports were heavily weighted to early 2022 before sanctions and export restrictions were imposed.

• Global nitrogen prices have declined since the beginning of 2023 due to lower European natural gas prices and buyer deferrals. We expect European natural gas prices to be volatile throughout the year and around 30 percent of the region’s nitrogen capacity is currently offline. North American natural gas prices remain highly competitive compared to European and Asian natural gas prices and we expect Henry Hub spot prices between $2.50 to $4.50 per MMBtu in 2023.

• We anticipate nitrogen supply constraints will persist in 2023, including lower Russian ammonia exports, reduced European operating rates and continued Chinese urea export restrictions. We expect a tight US supply and demand balance ahead of the 2023 spring season due to higher corn acreage and increased US nitrogen exports over the past six months.

• We expect Chinese phosphate export restrictions to be in place until at least April 2023, anticipate improved demand in North America and Brazil, and the continuation of strong demand in India. Phosphate product margins are expected to be supported by lower raw material sulfur prices due to reduced operating rates and demand in China.

Financial Guidance

Based on market factors detailed above, we are issuing full-year 2023 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $8.4 to $10.0 billion and full-year 2023 adjusted net earnings guidance of $8.45 to $10.65 per share.

• Retail adjusted EBITDA guidance assumes strong demand for crop inputs in each of the markets we serve. We expect gross margins for crop nutrients and crop protection products will be lower compared to the record levels achieved in 2022.

• Potash sales tonnes guidance of 13.8 to 14.6 million tonnes assumes increased demand in our key markets of North America and Brazil and continued global supply constraints in 2023. We have maintained capability to increase sales volumes to our previous expectation of approximately 15 million tonnes if we see stronger demand in the market.

• Nitrogen sales tonnes guidance of 10.8 to 11.4 million tonnes assumes higher operating rates at our North American plants and a continuation of gas curtailments in Trinidad in 2023. Nitrogen sales tonnes guidance includes 300,000 to 350,000 tonnes of projected ESN^® product sales that prior to 2023 were included in the other product category.

All guidance numbers, including those noted above and related sensitives are outlined in the table below.

Consolidated Results

Net earnings and adjusted EBITDA increased for the full year of 2022 compared to the same periods in 2021, due to higher net realized selling prices resulting primarily from global supply uncertainties across our nutrient businesses and strong Retail performance. Net earnings and adjusted EBITDA decreased in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, due to lower sales volumes partially offset by higher net realized selling prices. In 2022, we recorded a non-cash impairment reversal of $780 million related to our Phosphate operations, which positively impacted net earnings. Cost of goods sold increased in the fourth quarter and full year of 2022 due to higher input costs, in particular higher cost of inventory, natural gas and sulfur. Cash provided by operating activities increased in the full year of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021 primarily due to higher net earnings and increased in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021 due to a higher release of working capital.

Segment Results

Our discussion of segment results set out on the following pages is a comparison of the results for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2022 to the results for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2021, unless otherwise noted.

Nutrien Ag Solutions (″Retail″)

• Adjusted EBITDA for the full year of 2022 increased due to higher sales and gross margins across nearly all product categories and regions where we operate. This was supported by strong agriculture fundamentals, higher selling prices and growth in proprietary product margins. Adjusted EBITDA decreased in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to the prior year’s record results as strong sales prices in most product categories were offset by lower volumes and higher cost inventory. Our Retail cash operating coverage ratio¹ improved as at December 31, 2022 to 55 percent from 58 percent in the same period in 2021 due to higher gross margin.

• Crop nutrients sales increased in the fourth quarter and the full year of 2022 due to higher selling prices. Gross margin increased for the full year of 2022 compared to the same period last year due to strategic procurement and the timing of inventory purchasing in the first half of 2022, with a decrease in the fourth quarter of 2022 due to higher cost inventory. Sales volumes decreased for the full year 2022 due to reduced application resulting from a delayed planting season in North America and stronger fourth quarter engagement in 2021 in a rising price environment, slightly offset by increased South American volumes attributed to recent acquisitions.

• Crop protection products sales and gross margin increased for the full year of 2022, particularly in North America, due to higher selling prices along with increased sales and gross margin in proprietary products. Gross margin was flat in the fourth quarter as higher sales pricing and a favorable sales mix in North America offset a decline in sales volumes compared to a very strong period of demand in the fourth quarter of 2021. Gross margin as a percentage of sales increased for the full year of 2022, supported by the reliability of our supply chain and strategic procurement in a rising price environment.

• Seed sales increased in the fourth quarter and the full year of 2022 due to higher pricing along with strong North America corn sales, Latin America soybean sales and Australia canola sales. Gross margin increased for the full year of 2022 due to higher pricing with a decrease in the fourth quarter of 2022 attributed to the timing and mix of seed sales compared to the same period in 2021.

• Merchandise gross margin increased for the full year of 2022 due to strong margin performance in Australia animal management, farm services and general merchandise, with a decrease in the fourth quarter of 2022 due to an unfavorable foreign exchange rate impact on Australian dollars.

• Nutrien Financial sales increased in the fourth quarter and full year of 2022 due to higher utilization and adoption of our programs and a higher interest-bearing trade receivable balance, driven by strong commodity pricing.

• Services and other sales and gross margin decreased in the fourth quarter and full year of 2022 mainly due to lower livestock volumes in Australia, along with an unfavorable foreign exchange rate impact on Australian dollars. Fourth quarter 2022 sales benefited from improved selling rates on North American custom application services.

1. These (and any related guidance, if applicable) are non-IFRS financial measures. See the ″Non-IFRS Financial Measures″ section for further information.

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