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2009 US exports to drop $1 billion
Sep. 5, 2008
While a 5.7-million-ton decrease and a 15% drop in average unit value for wheat will largely be offset by gains in almost all other product categories, greater competition from recovering foreign wheat production will reduce US wheat exports by $3.6 billion, says USDA-FAS. Reports also predict that a large increase in feed-quality wheat supply will replace US corn in some markets.
Rice is forecast to reach $2.2 billion in fiscal 2009 due to higher unit values.
US soybean exports are expected to fall 4 million tonnes due to reduced supply, but strong demand and tight markets ought to raise average unit values by 19% for a fiscal 2009 soybean export total of $15 billion.
With support from the largest carryover stocks in 40 years, it is anticipated that cotton exports will rise $1.1 billion in fiscal 2009 to a record $5.9 billion. US export volume is forecast to increase from the previous year to 3.3 million tons due to smaller foreign exportable supplies and a large domestic supply. China should remain the largest buyer with the largest growth in demand.
Even with a projected loss of 20 million metric tons, the 2008/09 domestic corn crop should be the second-largest on record, which will support domestic ethanol production as well as exports. However, US corn and exports will be reduced to 50 million tons due to more feed-quality wheat in Russia, Ukraine, and the EU, and increased foreign corn and barley production. Still, unit values are expected to increase, making total value decline only about $600 million. Projected lower sales to the EU will cause sorghum shipments to fall.
Source: FCI
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