Favorable exchange ratio could trigger early pesticide purchases for 2026-2027 in Brazil

Early purchases of agrochemicals (especially glyphosate) for the 2026-2027 Brazilian harvest, which begins in September 2026, are possible, according to projections from Jeferson Souza, an analyst specializing in the input market at the Agrinvest agency.

Glyphosate, the most widely used herbicide in Brazil, has undergone a significant transformation in the last three years, the specialist points out. In the 2021-2022 season, the price of glyphosate WG 720 exceeded BRL100/kg. "Since then, we have seen a continuous correction in prices," Souza emphasized.

However, the most relevant factor, which highlights the specialist, is the exchange ratio: "When we compare corn prices with glyphosate prices, we see a significant change. Before the pandemic, the calculation was simple: 1 bag of corn bought 1 kg of the herbicide. In 2021, we reached one of the best windows in recent history: 1 bag bought up to 2.5 kg of glyphosate. However, the explosive rise in herbicide prices drastically reduced this purchasing power, with the ratio falling below 1:1—in other words, bad for the producer."

"Today, we are back to a much more favorable scenario. The ratio exceeds 1:2, meaning one bag of corn buys more than 2 kg of glyphosate WG—a level approaching the best historical conditions," highlighted the input market analyst at Agrinvest.

Therefore, he stated, considering early purchases "is not absurd—it's rational. And the moment is also positive for soybeans, with good exchange ratios being observed. During this week that I was in the state, I spoke with several clients and partners, and this was one of the recurring topics."

"For many, talking about this now may sound 'crazy.' However, when we consider the profile of the producer in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso (one of the largest grain producers in Brazil), this type of anticipated movement is nothing new. The Mato Grosso market is really interesting and shows, once again, that opportunities are always sought and, above all, seized," the specialist recalled.

According to the analyst, the calculations to determine whether it is advantageous to anticipate the purchase of inputs "are not simple, but they offer a solid basis for decision-making." "Our role as consultants is precisely this: to identify opportunities and offer support in both buying and selling."

2025-2026 Season

As the harvest in Brazil progresses, producers are increasingly attentive to movements for purchases for the 2025-2026 Brazilian season. According to Souza, the "feeling regarding total purchases is unanimous: purchases in March 2025 are more advanced than they were in March 2024."

"Thinking about the pesticide market, we analyze imports monthly. From the latest updates, we have noticed that we continue to import significant volumes of fungicides; however, prices at the origin remain firm," he explained.

According to the input market analyst at Agrinvest, the Brazilian soybean producer still needs to conduct more than 80% of the agrochemical planning for 2025-2026. "However, there are some interesting opportunities that could be taken advantage of," he said in conclusion.

(Editing by Leonardo Gottems, reporter for AgroPages)