Mexico will face the worst decline in grain and oilseed production in 25 years due to drought

Mexico's domestic grain and oilseed production will suffer its most severe decline in a quarter of a century due to the prolonged drought and water stress affecting much of the country, especially in the north and center. According to the Agricultural Markets Consulting Group (GCMA), production is expected to decline from 40.8 million tons in 2021 to 32.4 million tons by 2025.

In contrast, imports of corn, wheat, and sorghum will soar to unprecedented levels, reaching an estimated 49.6 million tons this year, a 150% increase over 2000, according to Juan Carlos Anaya, director general of the GCMA.

The situation represents a significant challenge to the federal government's plans. The government recently launched the Harvesting Sovereignty program, which aims to promote food self-sufficiency in key crops such as corn, beans, and rice. Production targets include 21.3 million tons of corn, 730,000 tons of beans, and 221,500 tons of rice by 2025.

However, the outlook is not encouraging. For corn alone, a 5.4% decline is estimated in 2024, with an expected production of 21.7 million tons, of which 19 million would be white grain. Corn imports will also break records, with 25.2 million tons projected for 2025.

The outlook is even more critical for wheat, whose production is expected to plummet 41.2% to just 1.6 million tons, the lowest figure in three decades. Meanwhile, sorghum production is also projected to fall, with a projected 4.3 million tons, a decrease of 8.9%.

The lack of rainfall has directly impacted key states in the national agriculture sector. In Sonora, 200,000 hectares of wheat and 30,000 hectares of corn will not be planted. In Baja California, some 40,000 hectares of wheat will not be planted, while in Tamaulipas, a reduction of 150 hectares of sorghum is expected.

Added to this is the critical situation of agricultural dams, with extremely low levels: Sinaloa reports 9.2% fill, Sonora 13.5%, and Chihuahua just 18.8%, which seriously compromises the upcoming spring-summer cycle.

The report warns that regions such as the Bajío and the West could face a difficult season if stormy rains do not arrive in time, deepening the crisis in the Mexican countryside.