Brazil's Conab raises 2024/25 soybean output estimate

With the harvest of first-crop crops at an advanced stage, the National Supply Company (Conab) has been confirming the prospect of a record grain harvest in the 2024/25 season, now estimated at 330.3 million tons. The volume, if confirmed, is the largest ever recorded in Conab's historical series, and represents an increase of 32.6 million tons when compared to the 2023/24 cycle. The data are in the 7th Survey of the 2024/25 Grain Harvest, released this Thursday (10) by the Company.

The increase estimated by the state-owned company is due both to a larger planted area, forecast at 81.7 million hectares, with the incorporation of 1.7 million hectares compared to 2023/24, and to the favorable weather conditions recorded in the first harvest in the main producing regions. The positive outlook for the weather also supports the development of crops in the second harvest. In this scenario, a recovery in productivity of 8.6% is expected, estimated at 4,045 kilos per hectare.

Among the cultivated products, soybeans are expected to record the most significant volume ever harvested in the country. This harvest, Conab forecasts a production of 167.9 million tons, a result 20.1 million tons higher than the last harvest. The Central-West, the central producing region of the grain, is expected to record a new record in average crop productivity with 3,808 kilos per hectare, surpassing the 2022/23 cycle. In Mato Grosso, the harvest has already reached 99.5% of the planted area with average productivity reaching 3,897 kilos per hectare, the highest ever recorded in the state of Mato Grosso. A similar scenario is seen in Goiás, where harvesting work has already reached 97% of the area with a productivity of 4,122 kg/ha.

With the soybean harvest well underway, the planting of the second corn crop is close to completion. Total production of the cereal, taking into account the three crop cycles, is estimated at 124.7 million tons in 2024/25, an increase of 9 million tons compared to the previous cycle. The second corn crop alone is expected to produce 97.9 million tons, the result of a larger planted area, estimated at 16.9 million hectares, combined with a 5.5% recovery in the average productivity forecast at 5,794 kilos per hectare.

The rice harvest is also progressing well, with over 60% of the planted area already harvested. The weather conditions in the main producing regions have been favorable for the development of the crop. Combined with the management adopted by farmers, average productivity should recover by 7.2%, estimated at 7,061 kilos per hectare. The area should also grow by around 7%, reaching 1.72 million hectares. As a result, production should increase by 14.7%, reaching 12.1 million tons.

The expected increase in bean production is 2.1%, reaching 3.3 million tons when the three harvests of the legume are added together. The increase follows the improvement in the average productivity of the crops, which goes from 1,135 kilos per hectare to 1,157 kilos per hectare since the area remains stable at 2.86 million hectares.

The expectation of record production for cotton has been confirmed. Planting has been completed with an estimated area of 2.1 million hectares, an increase of 6.9% over the 2023/24 harvest. For cotton lint production, a harvest of 3.9 million tons is expected, 5.1% above the volume produced in the previous harvest.

Market – In this survey, the Company adjusted its estimates for corn consumption in the 2024/25 harvest, since total production of the cereal was readjusted to 124.7 million tons. As a result, the new expectation is for a volume of 87 million tons consumed in the domestic market. Exports are projected at 34 million tons. Even with the increase in domestic consumption, the final stock should reach approximately 7.4 million tons of grain. A similar scenario is found for cotton, in which the increase in production allows for an increase in both consumption and the fiber carryover stock.