Nutrien reports fourth quarter and full-year 2024 results

Nutrien Ltd. (TSX and NYSE: NTR) announced its fourth quarter 2024 results, with net earnings of $118 million ($0.23 diluted net earnings per share). Fourth quarter 2024 adjusted EBITDA¹ was $1.1 billion and adjusted net earnings per share¹ was $0.31.

″Nutrien delivered higher upstream fertilizer sales volumes, accelerated operational efficiency and cost savings initiatives and increased downstream Retail earnings in 2024, demonstrating significant progress towards our 2026 performance targets. We took a disciplined and intentional approach to our capital allocation decisions, further optimizing capital expenditures and returning $1.2 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases,″ commented Ken Seitz, Nutrien’s President and CEO.

″The outlook for our business in 2025 is supported by expectations for strong crop input demand and firming potash fundamentals. Nutrien has a world-class asset base, and we remain focused on strategic priorities that strengthen our core business and deliver structural improvements to our earnings and free cash flow,″ added Mr. Seitz.

Highlights² :

• Generated net earnings of $700 million ($1.36 diluted net earnings per share) and adjusted EBITDA of $5.4 billion ($3.47 adjusted net earnings per share) for the full year of 2024.

  
  

• Retail adjusted EBITDA increased to $1.7 billion in 2024 supported by higher product margins and lower expenses, as we continue to simplify our business and accelerate downstream network optimization initiatives.

  
  

• Potash adjusted EBITDA decreased to $1.8 billion in 2024 as lower net selling prices more than offset increased sales volumes. We mined 35 percent of our potash ore tonnes using automation in 2024, providing efficiency, flexibility and safety benefits, while supporting our highest annual production levels on record and a reduction in controllable cash cost of product manufactured per tonne.

  
  

• Nitrogen adjusted EBITDA of $1.9 billion in 2024 was relatively flat as lower net selling prices offset higher sales volumes and lower natural gas costs. Total ammonia production increased in 2024, driven by less maintenance downtime and improved natural gas utilization and reliability at our operations in Trinidad.

  
  

• Divested non-core assets and equity investments totaling approximately $60 million in 2024, providing incremental cash flow to allocate to high conviction priorities that are core to our long-term strategy.

  
  

• Repurchased 3.9 million shares for a total of $190 million in the second half of 2024 and an additional 1.9 million shares in 2025 for $96 million as of February 18, 2025. Nutrien’s Board of Directors approved the purchase of up to 5 percent of Nutrien’s outstanding common shares over a twelve-month period through the renewal of our normal course issuer bid (″NCIB″), which is subject to acceptance by the Toronto Stock Exchange.

  
  

• Nutrien’s Board of Directors approved an increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.545 per share. Nutrien continues to target a stable and growing dividend, having now increased the dividend per share by 36 percent since the beginning of 2018.

1. This is a non-GAAP financial measure. See the ″Non-GAAP Financial Measures″ section.

2. Our discussion of highlights set out on this page is a comparison of the results for the twelve months ended December 31, 2024 to the results for the twelve months ended December 31, 2023, unless otherwise noted.

Market Outlook and Guidance

Agriculture and Retail Markets

• Global grain stocks-to-use ratios remain historically low and demand remains strong, providing a supportive environment for ag commodity prices in 2025. We expect US corn plantings to range between 91 and 93 million acres and soybean plantings to range from 84 to 86 million acres in 2025. The projected increase in corn acreage, combined with a shortened fall application season in 2024, supports our outlook for strong North American fertilizer demand in the first half of the year.

  
  

• In Brazil, generally favorable soil moisture conditions and stronger crop prices are expected to lead to an increase in safrinha corn planted acreage of approximately five percent, supporting crop input demand in the first half of 2025.

  
  

• A weaker Australian dollar and strong grain and oilseed export demand is supporting grower economics, and conditions remain positive for 2025 crop input demand.

Crop Nutrient Markets

• Global potash shipments rebounded to approximately 72.5 million tonnes in 2024, driven by improved supply and supportive application economics that contributed to increased demand in key markets such as China, Brazil and Southeast Asia.

  
  

• We forecast global potash shipments between 71 and 75 million tonnes in 2025. The high end of the range captures the potential for stronger underlying global consumption and the lower end captures the potential for reduced supply availability. We anticipate the potential for supply tightness with limited global capacity additions in 2025 and reported operational challenges and maintenance work in key producing regions.

  
  

• Global urea and UAN prices have increased in the first quarter of 2025, driven by strengthening demand in key import markets and restricted supply, including continued Chinese urea export restrictions. Global ammonia prices have trended lower to start the year due to seasonal demand weakness and the anticipation of incremental supply in the US and export capacity from Russia. We expect North American natural gas prices to remain highly competitive compared to Europe and Asia, with Henry Hub natural gas prices projected to average between $3.25 and $3.50 per MMBtu for the year.

  
  

• The US nitrogen supply and demand balance is expected to be tight ahead of the spring application season, as nitrogen fertilizer net imports in the first half of the 2024/2025 fertilizer year were down approximately 60 percent compared to the five-year average. Additionally, nitrogen demand for the spring season is expected to be strong due to the limited fall ammonia application season and higher projected corn acreage.

  
  

• Phosphate fertilizer markets remain firm, particularly in North America where inventories were estimated to be historically low entering 2025. We expect Chinese phosphate exports similar to 2024 levels, with total DAP/MAP exports ranging between 6 and 7 million tonnes, and tight stocks in India to support demand ahead of their key planting season.

Financial and Operational Guidance

• Retail adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.65 to $1.85 billion assumes higher crop nutrient sales volumes, continued growth of our proprietary products and further margin recovery in Brazil. We anticipate foreign exchange headwinds in our international retail operations and the absence of asset sales and other income items realized in 2024, which combined are estimated at approximately $75 million.

  
  

• Potash sales volume guidance of 13.6 to 14.4 million tonnes is consistent with our global shipments outlook and accounts for some uncertainty regarding the possible imposition and related impact of US tariffs, as well as global supply availability.

  
  

• Nitrogen sales volume guidance of 10.7 to 11.2 million tonnes assumes continued reliability improvements and higher operating rates at our North American plants.

  
  

• Phosphate sales volume guidance of 2.35 to 2.55 million tonnes assumes lower production at our White Springs facility in the first half of 2025 and improved operating rates in the second half compared to the prior year.

  
  

• Total capital expenditures of $2.0 to $2.1 billion are expected to be lower than the prior year. Our capital expenditure program has been further optimized to sustain safe and reliable operations and to progress a set of targeted growth investments. This total includes approximately $400 to $500 million in investing capital expenditures focused on proprietary products, network optimization and digital capabilities in Retail, low-cost brownfield expansions in Nitrogen and mine automation projects in Potash.

All guidance numbers, including those noted above, are outlined in the table below. In addition, set forth below are anticipated fertilizer pricing and natural gas price sensitivities relating to adjusted EBITDA (consolidated) and adjusted net earnings per share.

Net earnings and adjusted EBITDA decreased in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, primarily due to lower Potash net selling prices and sales volumes, partially offset by higher Retail earnings and lower expenses. For the full year of 2024, net earnings and adjusted EBITDA decreased compared to 2023 due to lower Potash and Nitrogen net selling prices, partially offset by increased Retail earnings and record Potash sales volumes. Net earnings were also impacted by a previously disclosed loss on foreign currency derivatives in the second quarter of 2024.

Segment Results

Our discussion of segment results set out on the following pages is a comparison of the results for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2024 to the results for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2023, unless otherwise noted.

Nutrien Ag Solutions (″Retail″)

• Retail adjusted EBITDA increased in the fourth quarter of 2024 due to lower expenses and higher crop protection and seed margins, including increased proprietary products gross margins and improved margins and selling expenses in Brazil. During the fourth quarter, we recognized a $25 million gain on the sale of land in Argentina as we continue to simplify our business. Adjusted EBITDA increased for the full year, supported by higher product margins in all geographies and lower expenses.

• Crop nutrients sales decreased in the fourth quarter of 2024 due to lower sales volumes, which were impacted by wet weather in North America and strategic actions related to our margin improvement plan in Brazil. Full-year 2024 sales were impacted by lower selling prices and sales volumes. Gross margin decreased in the fourth quarter as higher per-tonne margins in North America were more than offset by lower sales volumes. For the full year, gross margin increased due to higher per-tonne margins in North America, including growth in our proprietary crop nutritional and biostimulant product lines.

  
  

• Crop protection products sales were lower in the fourth quarter and full year of 2024 mainly due to lower selling prices. Gross margin improvements for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024 were supported by proprietary products, strong operational execution and the selling through of lower cost inventory in South America compared to the same periods in 2023.

  
  

• Seed sales decreased in the fourth quarter and full year of 2024 mainly due to the impact of competitive pricing pressure in South America. Gross margin for the fourth quarter increased, supported by higher proprietary gross margin, including improved margins in South America due to strategic actions related to our margin improvement plan in Brazil. Full-year 2024 gross margin increased as improved margins in North America more than offset the impact of dry weather and competitive market pressures in Brazil.

  
  

• Merchandise sales and gross margin decreased in the fourth quarter and full year of 2024 due to reductions in Australia primarily related to weather-related impacts on water equipment sales and animal health products.

  
  

• Nutrien Financial sales and gross margin increased in the fourth quarter and full year of 2024 due to higher financing rates offered.

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