Brazilian exports to US hit record high on eve of Trump's inauguration

The latest Brazil-US Trade Monitor, a quarterly publication by Amcham Brazil, reveals a historic milestone: for the first time, Brazilian exports to the U.S. exceeded $40 billion, reaching $40.3 billion in 2024. Export volume also reached unprecedented levels, with 40.7 million tons, representing a 9.9% increase over 2023.

Brazilian sales performance to the US was significant, especially compared to exports to other markets. While Brazil's global sales fell 0.8%, exports to the US grew 9.2%, surpassing crucial partners such as the EU (+4.2%), China (-9.5%), and Mercosur (-14.1%).

"Trade with the US produced significant gains for the Brazilian economy in 2024, driving a broad range of productive sectors, especially industry. Brazilian exports of industrial products reached a record $31.6 billion, reaffirming the US position as the main destination for Brazilian goods with higher added value," highlighted Abrão Neto, CEO of Amcham Brazil.

The trade flow between the two countries also reached a significant level: $80.9 billion, an 8.2% increase compared to 2023, marking the second-highest value in the historical series.

Brazilian Industry in the Spotlight

One of the highlights of bilateral trade in 2024 was the performance of the Brazilian industry, which recorded a record $31.6 billion in sales to the US, a 5.8% increase compared to 2023.

The manufacturing industry represented 78.3% of all Brazilian exports to the US, consolidating the country as the leading destination for Brazilian industry sales for the ninth consecutive year. It was ahead of traditional markets such as the European Union ($22.4 billion) and Mercosur ($18.8 billion).

Crude oil, aircraft, coffee, cellulose, and beef are the main exported products that registered growth in 2024. Eight of the top 10 items sold to the US showed value expansion compared to the previous year.

Furthermore, export growth to the US was more significant than Brazilian sales to the world across all sectors:

• Agriculture: +36.9% (vs. -11.0% to the world);

• Extractive industry: +21.1% (vs. +2.4% to the world);

• Manufacturing industry: +5.8% (vs. +2.7% to the world).

Projections for 2025

Given the growth of both economies, the outlook for 2025 suggests maintaining high levels of trade between Brazil and the US.

According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), international trade in goods should grow 3% this year. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that the US GDP will grow by 2.8%, while Brazil's will advance by 2%.

"With expanding demand in both countries, we expect the trade flow in 2025 to remain robust, close to the highest values in the recent historical series. However, it is crucial to monitor high international uncertainties," Abrão Neto warned.

(Editing by Leonardo Gottems, reporter for AgroPages)