Brazil's grain production in 2024-2025 estimated at 322.3 million tons, with favorable weather for first-crop crops

Brazilian farmers are expected to harvest 322.3 million tons of grain in the 2024-2025 harvest, which is equivalent to an 8.2% growth compared to the previous harvest's production, which is 24.5 million more tons to be harvested. 

The new estimate by the National Supply Company (Conab) maintains the forecast of record production in the historical series if the result is confirmed. The good performance accompanies the favorable weather recorded during the development of first-crop crops. In addition, the total sown area is estimated at 81.4 million hectares and should grow 1.8% compared to the 2023-2024 cycle. The company released the data this Tuesday, January 14, during the announcement of the 4th Survey of the 2024-2025 Grain Harvest.

The main product cultivated in the country, soybeans, should register a production of 166.33 million tons, 18.61 million tons above the total produced in the previous harvest. After a year of crop failure, the current cycle tends to recover the average productivity of crops. For this season, an average performance of 3,509 kilos per hectare is expected, compared to 3,201 kg/ha registered in 2023-2024. The planting of the oilseed occurred in a concentrated manner, mainly from the end of October. As a result, the harvest should also occur, for the most part, from the end of January. The weather conditions in the analyzed period have been favorable to the crop so far. However, Conab will remain attentive to the effects of weather behavior until the grain harvesting work is completed.

With the second largest production volume, corn should register a total harvest of 119.6 million tons in 2024-2025, 3.3% above the previous season. For the first harvest of the cereal, a 6.4% reduction in the planted area is expected. On the other hand, average productivity should grow by 4.8%, reaching 6,062 kilos per hectare. Frequent rainfall, interspersed with sunny periods, favored the development of the crop in the central-producing regions. As a result, a harvest of 22.53 million tons is expected. The planting of the second and third harvests of the grain will begin this month and April, respectively.

In the case of rice, sowing for the 2024-2025 cycle exceeds 90% of the total area forecast for this harvest in the main producing areas of the country, estimated at 1.75 million hectares, which represents an increase of 8.5%. In addition to the larger planted area, Conab also expects a recovery in the average productivity of crops in the country, going from 6,584 kilos per hectare to 6,869 kg/ha. This combination of factors leads to the expectation of a 13.2% increase in production, estimated at 11.99 million tons.

An essential partner for rice on Brazilians' plates, total bean production is also expected to grow by 4.9%, estimated at 3.4 million tons, the second largest harvest in the last 15 years, behind only the 2013-2014 season. The result reflects both the increase in area and productivity. In the first legume harvest alone, the harvest is expected to increase by 15.5%, estimated at just over one million tons. The harvest of this first cycle of the crop is underway, with 19.4% completed in the first week of January.

For cotton, Conab predicts a 3.2% increase in the area to be planted when compared to the last harvest, which is estimated at 2 million hectares. The forecast is for cotton lint production to reach 3.7 million tons, which would be among the highest ever recorded in the historical series if the result is confirmed. In the case of winter crops, the 2024 harvest is over. For wheat, the main crop cultivated, production was estimated at 7.89 million tons, 2.6% below that harvested in the 2023 harvest. This drop was mainly caused by a 14.2% reduction in the planting area in the states of the Southern region, combined with unfavorable weather conditions throughout the crop cycle in Paraná and in the Southeast and Central-West regions.

Market – With the soybean crop failure seen in the 2023-2024 cycle, exports of the oilseed last year reached 98.6 million tons. For bran, 22.9 million tons were sold in the foreign market, and for oil, 1.35 million tons. With the recovery in the soybean harvest for this cycle, Conab also expects an increase in shipments this year. For the 2024-2025 harvest, international sales of the grain should reach 105.47 million tons. Exports of bran remained at 22 million tons and those of oil at 1.4 million tons.

In the case of corn, the Company adjusted its exports of the cereal in the 2023-2024 harvest, now estimated at 38.5 million tons. With projected consumption close to 83.57 million tons, the expectation is that the final stock of the product will settle at around 2.5 million tons. For the 2024-2025 season, sales to the foreign market are estimated at 34 million tons, while consumption tends to be 86.4 million tons. With the increase in production, stocks tend to recover and close at 3.5 million tons at the end of the current cycle, guaranteeing domestic supply, especially for the animal protein sector.

For rice, consumption was updated to 10.5 million tons, a value close to the average consumption of the last 5 years in the rice sector. Regarding the product's trade balance in the 2023-2024 harvest, with domestic prices operating above export parities for most of the marketing period, combined with lower domestic availability and the North American production recovery, the projection is a reduction in export volumes to 1.5 million tons by Brazil. For the 2024-2025 harvest, amid the projection of production recovery and cooling prices for next year, an increase in Brazilian rice exports to two million tons is estimated. Even with the rise in shipped volumes, the final stock in the 2024-2025 cycle should recover and be close to 1.28 million tons at the end of February 2026.

The Conab Portal provides complete information on the 4th Survey of the 2024-2025 Grain Harvest and the market conditions for these products.