Philippine ’09 farm output looks grim

THE PHILIPPINES HAS FURTHER lowered expectations on farm production, with near-flat growth seen, as the crop sector reels from the effects of devastating storms.

Growth in the country’s agricultural output will likely be at the lower end of the 0.5 percent to 1.5 percent target range of the government.

"There will be an adjustment, definitely. We are looking at the lower end of the target,” Agriculture Secretary Arthur C. Yap told reporters Wednesday.
Crops such as rice and corn make up about 50 percent of the country’s total agricultural production.

The Department of Agriculture estimates that the agriculture sector suffered P47 billion in damage from recent calamities, including Tropical Storm "Ondoy” and Tropical Depression “Pepeng.”

With crop production pummeled by storms, the farm sector will have to depend on fisheries and high-value commercial crops such as vegetables for growth.

All targets have in fact been adjusted as storms had forced farmers to replant, Yap said.

Harvests from replanted areas will likely come in early 2010, boosting first-quarter production.

"That’s why I’m predicting that first quarter output will grow,” Yap said.

He would not, however, give a figure for the first quarter.

Last month, the DA had downgraded its growth forecast for the year to about 2.5 percent around mid-year. It adjusted the estimate to 0.5 to 1.5 percent in the aftermath of the storms.

Benjamin Diokno, former budget secretary and a professor at the UP School of Economics, said in a text message that a 0.5-percent growth would be most likely for 2009.

"For the fourth quarter it’s going to be flat at best, with high probability that it could be negative, Diokno said.

The Bureau of Agricultural Statistics reported last week that the Philippines, the world’s top rice importer, could sustain a double-digit drop in the production of its main staple, rice, in the fourth quarter.