Coming rains unlikely to save Ukraine winter crops

Rain due later this week will be too late to save drought-stricken Ukrainian grain fields, a leading analyst said on Friday.

Deputy Farm Minister Ivan Demchak this week said only about half of the winter grain sown to the 2010 harvest had sprouted as of Oct. 8 and 30 percent was in good condition. [ID:nLD652743].

Winter wheat accounts for about 80 percent of Ukraines total winter grain area and more than 90 percent of the total wheat harvest.

"If we believe this official information, it means a real disaster for the country," said Mykola Vernytsky, director of ProAgro agriculture consultancy.

"Crops, which have no sprouted yet, will not sprout after these rains and this means our future winter harvest could be depleted by half." The 2009 wheat crop is likely to total near 20 million tonnes against 25.9 million in 2008. Ukraine consumes about 12 million tonnes of wheat per year.

In 2007, ice in the winter and droughts in spring cut the grain harvest to 29.3 million tonnes, while good conditions in 2008 boosted the crop to a record 53.3 million.

"Rains could only improve the condition of crops already sprouted. But the crops that do sprout after these rains cannot come through the winter and will die," Vernytsky said.

Ukraine is among the worlds top grain exporters and in the first three months of the 2009/10 season sold abroad about 6.7 million tonnes of grain, including 3.6 million of wheat.

It exported 6.5 million tonnes of grain, including 3.02 million of wheat, in the same period in 2008/09. But so high a pace of exports, officials said, may force the government to restrict exports in the case of a poor grain harvest forecast for the new year. In 2007/08 the govermnent limited grain exports after a poor crop and shipments totalled a meagre 4 million tonnes.